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Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Do you know this baby? ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Nobody forgot about politics.". "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Twitter Twitter History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. That's 14 in a row. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Go on, look them up! Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Website Updates Paused In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . "They followed through the whole four years. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". (Go to the bottom of the page. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Found an error on our site? If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Telegram Telegram "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Trump won 18 of the 19. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Enter Donald Trump. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. First, what are bellwether counties? Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Free and open-source. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". It gets a lot more interesting. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Until this year. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). In their . If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Here's why. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections.